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The Slow-Motion Catastrophe

Jamaica braces for a Category 5 hurricane and historic flooding

Sunday, 26 October 2025 16:58

Abstract

Hurricane Melissa, a rapidly intensifying Category 4 storm, is poised to make landfall in Jamaica as a potentially catastrophic Category 5 system, threatening the island with life-threatening storm surge and up to 40 inches of rain. The storm's slow movement is expected to prolong its destructive impact, raising the spectre of the most powerful hurricane to strike the nation in its modern history.

A Monster on the Horizon

The Caribbean is facing a crisis as Hurricane Melissa, a powerful and rapidly intensifying storm, bears down on Jamaica and the island of Hispaniola11,21. As of Sunday, 26 October 2025, Melissa had strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane, packing maximum sustained winds of 140 miles per hour16,18. Forecasters from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned that the storm was still intensifying and could reach Category 5 status by Sunday night or Monday morning20,22. This explosive strengthening saw Melissa jump from a tropical storm on Saturday morning to a Category 4 monster by early Sunday, a pace of intensification that was twice the rate required to qualify as a rapidly intensifying system22. The storm’s core was located approximately 110 to 120 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, moving at a dangerously slow pace of just three to five miles per hour8,11,17. This sluggish forward speed is a critical factor, as it significantly increases the duration of the storm’s impact, allowing it to dump massive amounts of rainfall over the same areas for an extended period8,21. The NHC’s forecast track projects that the core of Melissa will move near or directly over Jamaica through Tuesday, with landfall expected late Monday night or early Tuesday morning16,18. Should it strike at its predicted strength, Melissa would surpass Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 to become the most powerful hurricane to make landfall on the island in modern history7,11,22.

The Deluge and the Surge

The primary threat posed by Hurricane Melissa is not solely its destructive wind field, but the catastrophic flooding and landslides expected from the torrential rain22. Forecasts indicate that the slow-moving system is expected to drop between 15 and 30 inches of rain on Jamaica, with localised totals in some areas potentially reaching up to 40 inches9,16,17. The island’s mountainous terrain will exacerbate this deluge, forcing the air to rise and creating even more rain, which will then cascade down steep slopes, creating ideal conditions for devastating mudslides8,11,22. The NHC has explicitly stated that catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are probable across portions of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola16,17. Beyond the rainfall, a life-threatening storm surge is a major concern for Jamaica’s southern coast, including the area near the capital city of Kingston16,22. Peak storm surge heights are forecast to reach between nine and thirteen feet above ground level near and to the east of the landfall point, a surge that will be accompanied by large and destructive waves16,22. The combination of destructive winds, historic rainfall, and a massive storm surge is expected to cause extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and the isolation of entire communities22.

National Mobilisation and Evacuation

In anticipation of the storm’s arrival, Jamaican authorities have initiated a full-scale national emergency response7,12. The entire island is under a hurricane warning, signifying that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area7,16. The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) has activated its National Emergency Operation Centre at a high alert level, which corresponds to a Level 3, or full response phase, involving the mobilisation of all first responders and supporting agencies7,12. Over 650 emergency shelters have been activated across the island to accommodate residents in flood-prone and vulnerable areas9,25. Officials have urged residents to complete all preparations immediately, heed official warnings, and avoid unnecessary travel during the storm9,12,15. The government has also taken steps to secure essential services, with the Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS) activating its command centres and placing overseas line crews on standby14. The JPS has intensified vegetation management and grid reinforcement, particularly in key transmission areas, and equipped critical control and telecommunications sites with 48-hour backup power and Starlink systems to ensure communication continuity14. Transportation across the island has been severely curtailed, with the Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston closing at 8 p.m. local time on Saturday, and the Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay closing at noon local time on Sunday15,25. Tourists have been rushing to leave the island ahead of the airport closures15.

Regional Devastation and Path

The destructive reach of Hurricane Melissa extends beyond Jamaica, with significant impacts already felt across the wider Caribbean10,21. The storm’s outer rainbands have already caused devastation in Hispaniola, the island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic10,13. In Haiti, at least three people have died, and another five were injured due to a collapsed wall, with authorities reporting catastrophic flash flooding and landslides, particularly in the Tiburon Peninsula10,23,25. The United Nations has allocated $4 million in humanitarian aid to support evacuation and emergency response efforts in Haiti9. The Dominican Republic has also reported one death and one person missing, alongside significant damage to nearly 200 homes10,23. Flooding has isolated over two dozen communities in the Dominican Republic, and numerous water supply systems are out of service, affecting more than half a million customers10,13. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings remain in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, from the Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince16. Following its passage over Jamaica, the hurricane is forecast to move across southeastern Cuba by Tuesday night, where hurricane watches are in effect for several provinces, including Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantánamo, and Holguín16,17. The US Navy has ordered the evacuation of non-essential personnel and their families from the base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba11,21. The storm is then expected to track toward the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday17,25.

Conclusion

The slow, relentless approach of Hurricane Melissa presents an existential threat to Jamaica and a major humanitarian challenge for the entire northern Caribbean8,9. The combination of the storm’s extreme intensity, its potential to reach Category 5 status, and its unusually slow forward speed creates a scenario for a prolonged and devastating disaster8,20,22. As the island nation prepares for what could be the most powerful storm in its recorded history, the focus remains on the immediate priority of safeguarding human life against the imminent threats of catastrophic flooding, landslides, and a life-threatening storm surge7,16,22. The regional impact, already evident in the fatalities and infrastructure damage across Hispaniola, underscores the widespread nature of the unfolding crisis10,23.

References

  1. Jamaica braces for Hurricane Melissa. Category 5 expected - EarthSky

    Used to verify the storm's category, expected landfall time, the comparison to Hurricane Gilbert, the activation of emergency shelters, and the ODPEM's high alert status.

  2. Travel Alerts as Hurricane Melissa Strengthens: Severe Flooding and Winds Expected to Impact Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic – Updates You Need to Know

    Used to confirm the slow movement of the storm, the expected rainfall totals (up to 30-40 inches), the risk of mudslides due to mountainous terrain, and the initial casualties in Haiti.

  3. Record-breaking storm alert for Jamaica: Hurricane Melissa may become Jamaica's deadliest storm ever, officials say | World News - The Times of India

    Used to verify the activation of over 650 emergency shelters, the urgent warnings from Jamaican officials, the anticipated rainfall totals (15 to 25 inches), and the UN's humanitarian aid allocation to Haiti.

  4. Dominican Republic Joins Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, Turks and More As Hurricane Melissa Is Going To Strike Next Week, A Vital Guide for Tourists and Travelers

    Used to detail the impact on the Dominican Republic (one death, one missing, 200 homes damaged, isolated communities) and Haiti (three fatalities, infrastructure damage, Tiburon Peninsula impact).

  5. Hurricane Melissa strengthens into a powerful Category 4 storm in the Caribbean. Maps show its forecast path. - CBS News

    Used to confirm the Category 4 status, the 'life-threatening and catastrophic' warning, the storm's location, wind speeds (140 mph), the comparison to Gilbert, the effect of Jamaica's mountains on rainfall, and the evacuation of non-essential personnel from Guantanamo Bay.

  6. #EyeOnMelissa: ODPEM activates National Emergency Operation Centre - Jamaica Observer

    Used to confirm the activation of the National Emergency Operation Centre (NEOC) at a high alert level and the Level 3 full response phase.

  7. Tropical Storm Melissa dumps heavy rain on Haiti and the Dominican Republic - AP News

    Used to provide context on the early impact of the storm on Hispaniola, including the number of water supply systems out of service and the number of affected customers in the Dominican Republic.

  8. JPS Initiates Emergency Operations in Response to Advancing Tropical Storm Melissa

    Used to detail the preparations by the Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS), including command centre activation, grid reinforcement, 48-hour backup power, and Starlink systems for communication continuity.

  9. Jamaican residents making last preps, tourists rush to leave before airport closes ahead of Hurricane Melissa - WPLG Local 10

    Used to confirm the rush of tourists leaving and the closure time for the Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay.

  10. Sunday, Oct. 26: National Hurricane Center's update on Category 4 Hurricane Melissa:

    Used to confirm the Category 4 status, 140 mph winds, expected landfall time (Monday night/Tuesday morning), the forecast path over Cuba and the Bahamas, the rainfall totals (15-30 inches), the storm surge height (9-13 feet), and the hurricane warnings/watches in effect for Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba.

  11. Category 4 Hurricane Melissa slowly moving toward Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas:

    Used to confirm the storm's location (110 miles south of Kingston), slow speed (3 mph), the expected turn to the north/northeast, and the path over Cuba and the Bahamas.

  12. Latest on Category 4 Hurricane Melissa: Sunday, Oct. 26 update from the NHC:

    Used to confirm the Category 4 status, 140 mph winds, and the expected landfall time in Jamaica and Cuba.

  13. Hurricane Melissa Approaches Rare Category 5 — Four Things To Know - Forbes

    Used to confirm the expectation of the storm reaching Category 5 status by Sunday night or Monday morning and the prediction of a direct landfall in Jamaica and Cuba.

  14. Category 4 Hurricane Melissa threatens catastrophic flooding in Jamaica and Haiti:

    Used to confirm the Category 4 status, the potential for Category 5, the threat of catastrophic flooding and landslides, the slow movement, and the evacuation order for Guantanamo Bay.

  15. Why Melissa's intensification en route to Jamaica is so extraordinary - The Washington Post

    Used to confirm the storm's rapid intensification rate (twice the threshold), the expectation of Category 4 or 5 landfall, the specific threats of 40 inches of rain and 9-13 feet of storm surge, and the expected extensive infrastructural damage and community isolation.

  16. Hurricane Melissa rapidly strengthens to Category 4 storm | CBC News

    Used to confirm the Category 4 status, the three deaths in Haiti, and the one death in the Dominican Republic.

  17. Melissa strengthens into a Category 3 hurricane, threating catastrophic flooding in Jamaica, Haiti - The Morning Sun

    Used to confirm the closure time for the Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston, the activation of over 650 shelters, and the five injuries in Haiti.